Why 50%?

Why not more or less than 50%?  Why an arbitrary checkerboard pattern instead of reasoned selection of preservation zones based on scientific study?  While 50% may be more than needed, our current level of preservation is clearly less than we need if we want to preserve a functioning natural ecosystem.

50% is mostly about the simplicity, there is a certain fairness in the arbitrary nature of the division.  The desire is to shift focus of the debate on how to achieve the goal rather than what the goal is.  If we can shift out of 20 or 30% of the land, we can shift out of 50. At 50%, arguments about critical habitats become less important – some critical habitats that miss the preservation zones can be preserved by exchange, but with over 12,000 preservation areas covering half the planet, most habitat types will be automatically selected without the need for scientific study or argument.

If humankind cannot survive on 50% of the Earth, it certainly cannot survive on 99% of the Earth with the natural world shoved into a tiny piece of the available space, plus whatever desert, swamps, mountain peaks, ice fields and other wastelands that humans just don’t want.

As a Floridian, the idea of preserving 50% sounds almost absurd, looking at Florida’s desirable sand beaches, hardly 5% are preserved from the most intense development – but places like Brazil are already acknowledging the need to preserve 20 to 30% of privately held lands with their laws, even if enforcement of those laws is lacking. 50% is taking it “up a notch” and acknowledging that nature needs space just as much as people do.


Why 2150?

First, it’s a catchy rhyme with 50/50, and 2050 is just too soon to be realistic.  The point of the 50/50 by 2150 idea, at this stage, is to start framing conservation discussion in realistic terms.  Is it realistic to categorize, study and understand every species on the planet and educate every human on the planet on how each species is to be conserved?  Of course not, but CITES, the ESA, and many other conservation efforts seem to be driving in this direction.  Is excluding (non-indigenous) human activity from 50% of the Earth’s surface realistic?  Perhaps in 1950 it was not, but by 2050, the technology and resources will be available to make it possible.  Satellite and aerial surveillance, infra-red imaging, low cost autonomous drones all make it possible to control a border, if you have the will to do so.  It is much more realistic to simply seal a border than to police a complex, ever changing set of laws on a borderless population.

140 years ago, steam power and railroads had just started shrinking the scale of the world for the humans that used them.  140 years from now, those roads, rails, flyways, power lines, communication lines, pipelines and whatever else  humans desire to transport and travel on, could be updated and relocated to preserve half of the Earth for natural systems, and much more easily than the current infrastructure was constructed.

Another point raised is: how will the “displaced” people work their way into developed areas.  Again, over the space of 100 years, it is more realistic that the transition can be managed without unpleasant abruptness or glaring inequities.  There is the problem of overpopulation, but population was at half of present (2010) levels in 1970, and half that again in 1870.  The number of people the Earth can support is finite, and protecting 1/2 the Earth’s surface from advanced human development will not decrease the maximum number of people the Earth can support by 1/2.

What does “preserved” mean?

Developed areas are simple enough to explain, they would follow the same rules of good land and ocean stewardship that are applied everywhere today.  So, what does “preserved” mean?  In short:

  1. No exploitation via agriculture, fishing, forestry, or extraction of natural resources.
  2. No transit by surface or air vehicles
  3. No construction or use of pipelines, electric wires, or other conduit
  4. No dumping of waste
  5. No regular border crossing by humans

These are not national parks or forests open for recreation, hunting and harvesting. The Preservation proposed here is more like an extreme version of the U.S. national wilderness system, although the spirit of the wilderness law comes close to what preservation is attempting to achieve.  In essence, preserve areas are totally cut off from developed human activity, sort of like the area around Chernobyl, but without the radiation.  Any human activity in the preserve areas should be restricted to “natural” levels, to keep the definition simple, no use of metals, composites, or any other “advanced” materials, no engines, metal weapons, or machines.  People who choose to live in the preserve areas would live there more or less permanently, at a level of civilization similar to native North Americans before the arrival of Columbus.  All the intricacies of human habitation in the preserve areas will take a lot to describe, but basically, not many humans should be present in the preserves, and those who are should make minimal impact on the natural world.

Hopefully, the point of all this is obvious.  Each preserve area would be an area for natural biodiversity and abundance to flourish.  Hunting and fishing along the borders should be vastly more productive than in a completely civilized world.  In science fiction, city-planets like Trantor and Corsucant are dependent upon other planets and faster than light travel to support their cities – clearly, Earth doesn’t have these resources.  In addition to farms, forests, mines and power plants, we need our natural areas to support our cities and rural areas.

Total exclusion is an effective conservation of natural resources, simple to explain, simple to understand, simple to enforce, and effective.  Anything less than total exclusion will bring about variations in interpretation over time and location as well as enormous complications in monitoring and enforcement.  Nature didn’t need our help for the last million years, if we simply leave areas of the Earth alone, biodiversity and natural resources will be better off than they are under our present ‘intensive management.”

How big is a degree? How are special areas exchanged?

The checkerboard premise of 50/50 is somewhat arbitrary, but feels like a good subdivision.  Latitude is always more or less 69 miles per degree, while longitude gets smaller as you move from the equator to the poles.

So, near the equator, the proposal is for 69×69 mile (111x111km) preserves, about 3 million acres each.  For reference, Yellowstone park is about 2.2 million acres.  In some areas like deserts or open ocean, it may be desirable to expand to larger checkerboard squares, but it is important to keep representative ecologies in preserve areas (i.e. not make squares so large that entire ecosystem types are contained within a single developed square and not significantly represented in a preserve area.)  Of course, near the poles, especially above 60 degrees latitude, multiple degrees of longitude would be used to avoid the checkerboard sections getting too thin.

In many places, it will make sense to bend the lines to put unique terrain in a preserve area, or to keep urban development intact in exchange for preserving additional nearby areas.  Especially at the corners, provisions would be made for efficient transit roads between developed areas.  Provisions should also be made for transit of wildlife between preserved areas.  Generally, a one mile wide transit space between preserved areas should be connected at at least 1/2 of the corners – picture an elevated highway, power lines and pipelines crossing this area – still counted as developed land for the balance, but allowing free transit for wildlife between the adjacent preserves.

Why not just stripes?  Mostly, transit at the corners would be less disruptive than 69 mile bridges.  With a checkerboard system, surface and air travel can be restricted to the corners and out of the preserved areas.

When choosing areas for exchange, draw triangles from the corners to the the center of each checkerboard square.  For each acre of land in a preserve square that is going to continue to be used for development, at least one acre in the adjacent triangle of the developed square must be preserved.  All preserved land for a given square must be contiguous, including exchange land in the developed square.

Why 111 kilometer squares?  Based on human development to-date, a 2 to 3 million acre area is sufficient to encompass most developed cities and their surrounding areas, it’s not too restrictive, while still remaining small enough to not completely wipe out unique habitats, or human cultural heritage.  Most (though, not all) countries encompass far more than 3 million acres, and can accommodate the preservation subdivision without being completely deprived of access to their various terrains for development.  “Giving up” 50% of your available land for development is a radical thought, but, at least for competitive purposes, if everybody, everywhere transforms 50% of their land (and ocean) into preserves, nobody would have an unfair advantage, and we all would reap the benefits of living on a planet with functional ecosystems.

But, what about the displaced people?

If current trends continue, all of humanity will become displaced people in another few hundred years.  Displaced from the natural world, living in some kind of mostly artificial system mostly alien from anything a person of the 20th century would find familiar.  This is progress?  Perhaps.  But there is value in the natural world that should not be thrown away just so humans can occupy twice as much area.

O.K., fine, but how do we get there from where we are today? Well, in simple terms, people who live or own interests in areas designated as preserves would be compensated and relocate to non-preserve areas of their choosing. During the decades while exact boundaries of preserve areas are determined, actual full exclusion would still be more than a century away, with a lifetime to apply their compensation to acquisition of land or a place to live in the developed areas for them and their children. A gradual phasing in of exclusion might include a progression such as: no new road construction after T-50 years, no new building construction after T-40, no immigration into preserve areas after T-30, no sale of leaseholds or other real property after T-20, limitation of fuel import and vehicular traffic after T-10, cutting electric power distribution at T-5, cutting wired communications at T-2, removal of all metal tools and implements at T-1, etc. Persons who wish to pursue an indigenous lifestyle in the preserve areas are a whole other topic onto itself, but after preservation is established, no non-indigenous human use of the preserve areas will be permitted, enforcement by removal of violators and exclusion from entry.

Do we build walls? Walls and other physical barriers actually worked fairly well for the U.S.S.R. for almost 30 years. Shoot to kill would seem to be a more extreme policy than we would need today, or in 2150, more like interdiction of violators on their return to the developed side. What is restricted is entry to the preserve areas, but what is mostly enforced is return to the developed areas. There may be some need to enter into the preserve areas to dismantle and disrupt forbidden activities, but for the most part, enforcement can concentrate on keeping the border from being violated. On the open seas, satellite tracking should prove efficient for enforcement of the “No Fishing, No Trespassing” zones, perhaps augmented by aerial surveillance in near-shore areas where smaller boats might evade satellite detection. All this sounds like a horrid restriction of freedom, and it is, but letting mankind run freely across all the land has not had a beneficial effect on the environment in the fertile crescent, and we are rapidly doing the same thing to most areas on Earth that are of any value to people.

In short: displacement for half is preferable to suffocation for all.

The role of sovereign nation-states

So, who enforces the borders?  Each sovereign nation would be responsible for their own compliance within their borders, though cross-national boundary coordination would be very helpful.  Some nations might not have the resources, or the will, to enforce preserve borders, they might seek assistance from other nations, or they might openly reject the 50/50 idea and continue to develop up to 100% of their lands.  Even if the 50/50 preservation is only enforced on the high seas, it will be a huge step forward from conservation efforts today.  Nations reaping the rewards of 50/50 conservation should serve as models for others, examples of the benefits.  The main problems I would predict are in the conservation of energy resources, and in differential conservation between competing nations, with those who do more conservation feeling somehow unfairly disadvantaged versus those who do less.

About 50/50

50/50 by 2150 is a concept, a starting point of an idea for how humanity can live on the Earth for the next thousand years without utterly destroying the natural environment.

The concept is very simple: reserve half of the Earth for nature. Which half? Half of everything. Start with an arbitrary checkerboard. If the (integer) latitude plus longitude number is odd, that land or sea is free for responsible human development and exploitation, as basically all land is today. If the sum is even, that area is reserved from human exploitation, no agriculture, fishing, hunting, forestry, etc. Exceptions can be made, especially exchange of preserve areas where the benefit is obvious, but exchanged area must be nearby, in the adjacent checkerboard square, and should result in a net increase of preserved area to compensate for any fragmentation.

How do we get there? That is the by 2150 goal. Policy analysts can debate for decades the best way to evacuate the reserved areas, but if you look back at the world in 1860, and look where we are today, there is no reason why humanity couldn’t move out of the preserved areas in such a timeframe.

This blog is intended as a place to develop these ideas and discuss their ramifications.